What are the uses and implications of AI in a hypothetical 2040?
The TAS Hub and Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) AI in intelligence report: ‘Using AI in an Intelligence Context Future Scenario Workshop,’ is published here.
This workshop report presents a summary of observations and discussions related to an event on the use of AI in intelligence by 2040, held in February 2024. The future scenario workshop was held to examine the use and implications of AI in a hypothetical 2040. It was based on a hypothetical scenario in which the relationship between a technically advanced economic and military power called Roland and the neighbouring island state Islay deteriorates.
It unfolded in three parts:
- The build-up of military exercises by Roland near Islay and the potential for invasion.
- Roland’s full-scale invasion of Islay.
- Roland establishing civilian authority over Islay.
The workshop was structured around the scenario phases. The following are key observations that participants made in the context of each scenario phase but have relevance to the broader question of what AI use in an intelligence context will look like by 2040 and what implications and questions follow.
